| Employment Trends and Forecasts | | | | unemployment in 2009, it is forecast peak at |
| The main long-term foundational driver in terms | | | | 7.5% in 2010, before gradually receding toward |
| of housing sales volume and price support is a | | | | more normal levels thereafter. |
| given region's employment base. The following | | | | Demographic Trends and ForecastsThe |
| table presents historical trends and a 5-year | | | | distribution of the population by age bracket in this |
| forecast of employment and unemployment | | | | region is shown in the chart below: |
| levels for the Tucson, AZ MSA: | | | | |
| | | | | The population distribution by age compares |
| | | | estimates for 2009 and forecasts for 2014 with |
| Patterns in total non-farm jobs in this region are | | | | Census data from the year 2000. Changes in the |
| shown graphically in the following table: | | | | population between 2009 and 2014 are more |
| | | | clearly shown in the next chart: |
| Twelve month changes in the total non-farm job | | | | |
| base are shown in the chart below: | | | | As shown, population gains are forecast for all |
| | | | brackets. Sizable growth is projected between 25 |
| As shown, this region is estimated to have lost | | | | and 44 years - peak family formation years |
| 19,625 non-farm jobs during 2009 – an | | | | which will boost growth in the 5 to 14 years |
| unprecedented 5.1% loss of the total non-farm | | | | bracket. Growth in the 25 to 44 year age |
| job base for the biggest loss in decades. During | | | | brackets will continue to be drawn to affordable |
| Year 2010, an additional loss of 4,850 jobs is | | | | housing and job opportunities. Conventional housing |
| forecast. Thereafter, the impact from the national | | | | will perform well in select price points. |
| stimulus package will increasingly be felt, and | | | | Population growth between 55 and 74 years of |
| combined with improved financial markets, should | | | | age will be especially intense, suggesting that |
| lead the national economic recovery towards | | | | move-down and age targeted/qualified housing in |
| regional economic expansion. By 2014, a healthy | | | | various forms are likely to perform relatively well |
| 2.6% growth rate is forecast for non-farm jobs in | | | | once economic growth resumes. This influx of |
| this region. | | | | buyers into the mature housing market is |
| For a complete report Click Here | | | | significant since baby boomers now account for |
| Patterns in unemployment are shown below: | | | | one-fourth of the regional population. The mature |
| | | | market is anticipated to perform very well in the |
| After reaching historic levels estimated at 7.4% | | | | next cycle. |